Quality of western Canadian canola 2021

Weather and production review

Weather

The weather review and weather maps (Figures 2 to 5) were obtained from Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada.

Seeding and harvest progress graphs for each province (Figures 6a and 6b) were made using data reported by the provincial reports for Manitoba, for Saskatchewan and for Alberta.

Seeded area (Figure 7a) and production data (Figure 7b) were obtained from Statistic Canada.

Seeding conditions: The season started with lower than normal snow accumulations that melted early. May temperatures did not differ from normal, as days were warm, but overnight freezing temperatures were still recorded (Figure 2). There was, however, an earlier than normal start to seeding in the three provinces (Figure 6) due to warm day temperatures and lack of precipitation (Figure 3). At the end of May, a night frost in the southern part of Manitoba and Saskatchewan, as well as some snow in Alberta, resulted in some producers needing to reseed a few canola fields. By the first week of June over 98% of the canola crops were seeded, which is at least a week earlier than in 2020 (Figure 6a). Low soil moisture in early May (Figure 4) associated with low precipitation in May and June (Figure 3) led to variable germination and emergence of crops.

Growing season: Figure 2 shows the warmer than normal temperatures recorded in June, July, August and September for the 2021 growing season. In June, day temperatures reached the mid 30°C range in the three prairies provinces (Figure 4). During July, temperatures continued to be high, with a large number of days over 30°C (Figure 3). The lack of precipitation was also an issue during the hot summer months (Figure 3). Evening temperatures were high (over 25°C) for a large number of nights, which did not allow the crops to recover from the heat stress of the day. Research has shown that temperatures higher than 29.5°C during canola flowering negatively affect the yield of crops. The 2021 growing conditions were ideal to produce a poor yield for western Canadian canola.

Harvest conditions: In 2021, the harvest started earlier and ended earlier than in 2020 (Figure 6b). In August, the harvest was affected by rain (Figure 3), which impeded the harvesting of mature crops. The amount of precipitation led to some plant regrowth which made harvest a bit more difficult for producers. By the end of September harvest was mostly completed in the three provinces (Figure 6b), at least one week earlier than last year. The late August precipitation did not really improve soil moisture, as indicated by the September drought map, and western Canada remained in a state of severe to extreme drought (Figure 4).

It has been reported that the 2021 drought was the most severe and widespread drought in Canada in the last 50 years.

Figure 2  Monthly mean temperature differences from normal in the prairie region during the 2021 growing season (April to September)

Figure 3  Accumulated precipitation (mm) in the prairie region during the 2021 growing season (May to August)

Figure 4  Drought intensity in Canada as of May 31 and September 30, 2021

Figure 5  Number of days with temperatures above 30°C in the prairie region during the 2021 growing season (April 1 to June 29 and April 1 to August 31)

Production

The number of hectares (ha) of canola seeded in Canada since 2000 is presented in Figure 7a. In 2021, it was estimated that canola producers seeded approximately 686,300 ha more than in 2020 (9,096,700 versus 8,410,000 ha). This is approximately 3.9% more than the 5-year average of 8,841,700 ha and only 216,700 ha less than the record set in 2017 when 9,313,400 ha of canola were seeded (Figure 7a).

Statistics Canada reported that the 2021 western Canada average yield was estimated at 1,399 kilograms per hectare (kg/ha), much lower than the yield reported in 2020 (2,340 kg/ha) and the 5-year average yield (2,350 kg/ha). It was the lowest average yield since 2002 (1,200 kg/ha). In 2021, the highest average yield was reported in Manitoba at 1,662 kg/ha (2,321 kg/ha in 2020), followed by British Columbia (1,600 kg/ha versus 1,681 kg/ha in 2020) and Alberta (1,551 kg/ha versus 2,253 kg/ha in 2020). The largest decrease in yield compared to 2020 was reported in Saskatchewan (1,231 kg/ha in 2021 versus 2,395 kg/ha in 2020). Since 2017, the decrease in Canadian canola production (Figure 7) has been related to the decrease in seeded area but that was not true this year. In 2021, there was a marked increase in seeded area but a net production decrease. As of January 2022, Statistics Canada reported an estimated Canadian canola production of 12.645 million metric tonnes (MMT), which is more than 6.89 MMT less than the production in 2020 (19.484 MMT) and more than 7.64 MMT less than the 5-year average (20,235 MMT). This is the lowest canola production since 2008 (12.64 MMT; Figure 7).

In 2021, Saskatchewan grew 47.5% of the Canadian canola, compared to 54.5% in 2020. Alberta, Manitoba and British Columbia grew 33.1%, 18.2% and 0.5% of the Canadian canola, respectively. The main production areas in 2020 (2021 data not yet available) were in the northwest areas of the prairie provinces (Figure 1).